AEP CEO Mike Morris threw a fit a few months ago about long standing EPA rules that will cause coal-fired power plant closures more quickly than AEP had been planning. Morris threw around all kinds of doomsday forecasts.
(I even think he used the words “brownouts and blackouts.”) Morris’s public “trainwreck” comments about the closings’ impact on grid reliability echo the hysterical “brownouts and blackouts” claims AEP spouted to support their PATH project.
Well, Keryn over at StopPATH WV reads PJM documents so the rest of us don’t have to. Look what she found in PJM’s analysis of the situation:
Even with almost 7,000 MW less coal capacity clearing for the 2014/2015 Delivery Year, PJM estimates the RTO will carry a reserve margin of 19.6 percent for the Delivery Year, including the demand and capacity commitments of FRR entities. Even with the potential retirement of coal capacity already announced by FRR entities, there are also announced commitments to replace a portion of that capacity with new gas-fired capacity such that the RTO would still carry a reserve margin at or above of the target 15.3 percent installed reserve margin. Add into the mix the potential for new entry from Demand Resources, as has been the trend in recent years, and resource adequacy does not appear to be threatened.
All this PJM jargon probably gives you a headache, but it’s meaning still shines through. Chill out, Mike. Everything’s gonna be fine.