Here are the points from slide 15 of today’s TEAC reliability update that I linked to in my last post:
•Continue to validate preliminary analysis
•Complete 2017 N-1-1 analysis
•Additional sensitivity analysis
Slide 15 is titled PATH and MAPP Next Steps. The N-1-1 (N minus 1 minus 1) is a contingency analysis where PJM runs a model of the PJM system under peak load and then drops a major generator off the system. Then, a few minutes later, they drop another generator off the system to test how much transmission capacity is needed to handle the emergency power flows that result from this event. This appears to be the last test for PATH and MAPP.
Here is a paraphrase of the situation from an email that was sent to me by a participant in the TEAC conference call:
They still need to do their N-1-1 power flow analysis. But they have completed all of their other tests – voltage and thermal. So far, it looks like PATH and MAPP are not needed throughout the 15 year planning horizon.
It looks like the lower CETO numbers, reconductoring of Mt. Storm to Doubs line, and reactive upgrades may have eliminated the need for PATH (as our experts were saying). This result indicates that alternatives can help eliminate the need for large potential projects.
PJM intends to complete their analysis (the N-1-1 testing) before the next TEAC meeting on 8-9-12. If the analysis continues to show that the PATH and MAPP lines are not needed, the TEAC committee will recommend to the PJM board that the projects be dropped from the RTEP (and no longer held in abeyance).
In other words, it looks like PATH is goin’ down and we should know the final decision at the August 9 TEAC meeting.